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TRANS TASMAN Australian Edition

The China FTA aside, Australia is still our biggest trading partner and closest ally.

The Trans Tasman Australian Edition provides you with a window on what’s happening in our closest neighbour.

Focusing each week on trade, economy, defence, environment, politics, legislation and other key issues.

The ideal watchdog for Government departments and businesses to make comparisons and informed decisions based on trends from across the Tasman.

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The NZ Regional

Every serious management decision-maker needs to know 'Changes in the Economy'.

The NZ Regional Economic Scoreboard is a quarterly economic indicator, prepared by The Main Report Group in association with ASB Bank Ltd.

It provides exclusive, practical, at-a-glance statistical research including Employment, Retail Trade, House Prices, Construction, Population, New Car Sales and ranks NZ's 16 Regional Council areas.

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Insights Into Politics:

Trans Tasman Political Alert

New Zealand's #1 Political Letter

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Politics, economic shifts, legislation, regulations and competition are the four major forces influencing your business opportunities. Each week, TRANS TASMAN brings you the real story behind the news and events shaping the political scene – and the insights and analysis you need to make your organisation even more successful. And its crisply-written, time-saving style allows you to stay up-to-date in the midst of your hectic day.

For more than four decades TRANS TASMAN has been putting its finger on the pulse of the Australian/NZ relationship and the events shaping it, the crucial political and economic trends affecting our lives and businesses heading into the future.

Ringside On Politics - At the end of 2016 John Key threw a massive curve ball into the NZ political world by stepping down as PM. This brought Bill English to the top job. He has been a steady pair of hands in the Finance portfolio, but filling John Key’s shoes will be a huge task, and it is now much less likely National will be able to cruise to a fourth term in power.

In 2014 the electorate whole-heartedly endorsed National’s handling of the economy and the governing of the country as a whole. But a fourth term will be a tough ask, even though the opposition is still struggling. Housing will be a crucial test for the Government, but it may be lucky, and there are signs the heat is going out of the market. particularly in Auckland, which will be a godsend for the new leader.

Right For The Job - Growth is expected to be strong over the next 12 months, but slipping slightly by the end of the year, although the Trump effect could be a game-changer. A rising dollar will be a handicap as the country’s commodities continue to face the effects of fluctuating global demand.

Polls show National is the largest party but even with the support of its existing coalition partners it does not have an outright majority. The sudden resignation of Andrew Little at the beginning of August and the ascension of Jacinda Ardern have loosened the Govt’s grip on power.

Where Are The Others? - Winston Peters is still the big threat for both parties, with polls showing he could be in a kingmaker position later in 2017. As for the others, ACT, and The Maori Party are quickly losing relevance along with United Future. The Greens’ campaign has become defined by co-leader Metiria Turei’s confession she lied to the Department of Social Welfare in the 1990s. That lifted its support in the polls, but Labour has distanced itself and the Greens may strain to get traction on its key environmental issues. This year’s election certainly appears to be more of a contest than many expected it would have been had John Key not decided to take himself out of the game.

The Economy – Much of the country’s short to medium term economic future will still be decided beyond our borders as evidenced by global market volatility to which NZ is still particularly vulnerable. Dairy farm debt is shaping as a major problem. Auckland's housing crisis is finally beginning to recede as restrictions on investors in particular start to bite.

Business & Economic Trends – Growth is spectacular but predicted to slip slightly by year’s end although the Trump factor could cause more dramatic changes. Inflation appears to have been tamed for now - in fact it is being seen as too low. The dollar however is on an upward trend again as markets digest the Trump presidency and Brexit. The big problem for NZ outside global market volatility and a potential crash in China.

Is there an alternative for NZ if the China trade goes bad? The TPP agreement is now effectively dead. PM English is negotiating for a quick UK trade deal post Brexit and talks on other deals with India and the EU are ongoing, but a Trump presidency is likely to bring in a new era of protectionism and the era of globalisation could in fact be dead - a big task ahead for the Government and Trade Minister McClay.

Sector Reports - How are specific sectors of the economy performing? Where are the best opportunities for investment – and what areas are best left alone?

New Legislation & Tax Laws – Market Regulation • Commercial & Corporate Law • Taxation • Health and Safety • Paid Parental Leave • Treaty Settlements.

Our special weekly “In the Lobby” column goes right to the heart of what’s happening in the Select Committees and looks at the driving forces in them, the work they’re doing, and their impact on Govt.

Trade – Businesses are benefiting from new Free Trade deals, especially the one signed with China. Asian markets are growing while European economies are still finding the going tough. But the Trans Pacific Partnership is dead. Climate change, and the environment, are moving to be high not just on the political, but also the business, agenda. Water management has become one of the battle grounds for political advantage.

The Sharemarket & Companies in the News - How will you fare as global markets go through a period of volatility? The swings – and roundabouts. What are the forces at work? Running the rule over the blue chips. Keeping an eye on the “sleepers” who may be tomorrow’s high-fliers. Spotting the movers and the shakers.

Select Committees - See what the Committees are doing and what they are thinking in our Select Committees column.

Government Department Updates - Many large organisations rely on their Public Relations Consultants, Lobbyists and Trade Associations to supply them with information on the workings of Government Departments. By subscribing to Trans Tasman you will read first hand each Department’s policy, personnel and how they interpret and implement legislation. Trans Tasman is subscribed to by many journalists and commentators from competing media.

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Trans Tasman Political Alert has a team of 6 highly-qualified specialist contributors, analysing discussions & decisions, looking at potential repercussions, identifying trends, listening to Select Committee debate & reporting on opinions, submissions & personalities. We draw upon a wide range of sources close to the Beehive inner circle who wish to remain anonymous, for obvious reasons.

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21 September 2017

  • This Week...Expect the unexpected on election day. That’s not only because the main public polls have produced contradictory results, but also because the campaign has been like no other in recent memory.
  • As the drag race between the two main parties approaches the finish line, it’s opaque what kind of Govt will emerge. It might be National-Maori Party-ACT, National-NZ First, or even National on its own if National wins the most party votes. Otherwise, it could be Labour-NZ First, Labour-Green-NZ First, or Labour-Green-Maori Party.
  • Over the campaign National has made ground in the regions, but in Auckland, apart from its strongholds on the North Shore and across the affluent suburbs to the east. Jacinda Ardern may be able to capture party votes in the West Auckland electorates where National did well under John Key.
  • And methodologies used by political pollsters look likely to come under scrutiny after Saturday’s election. Conflicting opinion polls by the public pollsters have reflected wide variations sufficient to skew perceptions one way or the other.

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